Kevin Kroskey's Market Commentary

March 28, 2011 Weekly Market Commentary

4Q GDP REVISED UPWARD
The Commerce Department’s final estimate of 4Q 2010 GDP is +3.1%, an improvement from the previous estimate of +2.8%. The revision reflects increased consumer spending, exports and business investment during the quarter – and with this alteration, the Bureau of Economic Analysis now puts U.S. GDP at +2.9% for 2010. Compare that to the -2.6% economic output of 2009.1

WHEN DOES THE REAL ESTATE RECOVERY BEGIN?
By the looks of February’s home sales figures, recovery may not begin for a while. New home sales slipped 16.9% last month according to the Census Bureau, and were 28.0% under year-ago levels. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell by 9.6% last month; the median sales price for a single-family home was $157,000 (-5.2% from a year ago) with distressed homes making up 39% of the market (up 4% from a year ago). While monthly home sales figures are often later readjusted and have a sizable margin of error, the numbers are still troubling; for example, existing home sales were up for each of the preceding three months.2,3

GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY WEIGHS ON CONSUMERS
High gas prices and the unresolved nuclear power plant crisis in Japan likely impacted the University of Michigan’s final March consumer sentiment survey. The final March number was 67.5, the poorest reading the index has registered since November 2009.4

HARD GOODS ORDERS SLIP IN FEBRUARY
Durable goods orders confounded the forecasts of economists, diminishing last month by 0.9%. Minus transportation orders, the decline was 0.6%.5

STOCKS PROVE RESILIENT
While the three major Wall Street indexes are still negative for March, they all posted gains last week: DJIA, +3.05% to 12,220.59; S&P 500, +2.70% to 1,313.80; NASDAQ, +3.76% to 2,743.06. The Russell 2000 was up 3.67% last week and the “fear index”, the CBOE VIX, fell 26.72%.6

THIS WEEK: February consumer spending and January pending home sales reports arrive Monday. The Conference Board’s March consumer confidence index and the January Case-Shiller home price index come out Tuesday, plus earnings from Lennar. Thursday, we have initial and continuing claims and a report on February factory orders. Both the March unemployment report and the March ISM manufacturing report will be released on Friday.

WEEKLY QUOTE
“I have friends in overalls whose friendship I would not swap for the favor of the kings of the world.”
– Thomas Edison

WEEKLY TIP
Do you save a regular amount per month? Those who do find they have money for an emergency fund or other objectives. As you look at your monthly budget, determine the amount you can save each month and pay yourself first. Increasing your employer retirement plan contributions, takes the money out of your hands before you get it.

Best Regards,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations.
1 - latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/03/economic-growth-gdp-fourth-quarter-commerce-department-.html [3/25/11]
2 - census.gov/const/newressales.pdf [3/23/11]
3 - realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/03/feb_decline [3/21/11]
4 - economy.kansascity.com/?q=node/10253 [3/25/11]
5 - community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-03/us-durable-good-orders-decline-in-feb.aspx [3/24/11]
6 - cnbc.com/id/42273638
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [3/25/11]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F25%2F10&x=10&y=18 [3/25/11]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [3/25/11]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [3/25/11]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [3/25/11]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [3/25/11]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [3/25/11]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [3/25/11]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [3/25/11]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/25/11]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/25/11]
9 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
10 - http://montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [3/27/11]

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

March 14, 2011 Weekly Market Commentary

BEST RETAIL SALES NUMBERS IN 4 MONTHS
The Census Bureau says that retail sales climbed 1.0% in February. That matched the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg News. Department store sales improved by 1.0% last month and restaurant sales improved by 1.2% (the best monthly gain in that category in a year). Auto sales saw a 2.3% gain in February. Overall U.S. retail sales were up 8.9% from a year before.1,2

LOWEST CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN 5 MONTHS
Sometimes economic releases seem completely contradictory. While retail sales have improved, consumer sentiment has dipped – at least according to the University of Michigan’s initial March survey, which came in at 68.2, way below the final February mark of 77.5. Soaring gas prices would seem to be a factor. The index had been making progress back toward its 2002-2007 average reading of 89.3

ROUGH GOING FOR OIL & GOLD FUTURES
Last week’s run from risk sent the prices of these commodities downward. Oil futures settled at $101.16 a barrel Friday – that was a 3.12% week-over-week drop. The decrease reflected concern over reduction of refinery capacity and demand in Japan, one of the world’s leading oil importers. As for gold, it had its poorest week since mid-January, with prices slipping $6.70 on the COMEX over five days – a 0.47% weekly loss. Gold settled at $1,421.50 Friday as its five-week winning streak was snapped.4

DOW HOLDS ON TO 12,000
In light of last week’s momentous seismic and political events, the ups and downs of Wall Street seem relatively trivial. Somehow, the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ managed to remain above the psychologically significant 12,000, 1,300 and 2,700 benchmarks Friday. For the week, they performed as follows: DJIA, -1.03% to 12,044.40; NASDAQ, -2.48% to 2,715.61; S&P 500, -1.28% to 1,304.27. The CBOE VIX gained 6.56% last week.5

THIS WEEK: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday. Tuesday, there is an FOMC meeting at the Federal Reserve. Wednesday, we learn what happened with producer prices in February, and get data about February building permits and housing starts. Thursday brings the February edition of the Consumer Price Index and the Conference Board’s February leading indicator index, plus new initial and continuing claims data and a report on February industrial output. Also in the mix Thursday: before-the-bell earnings from FedEx and after-the-bell earnings from Nike. No major economic releases are scheduled for Friday.

WEEKLY QUOTE
“Life is the art of drawing without an eraser.”
– John Gardner

WEEKLY TIP
Try setting a specific dollar amount as a goal for your emergency savings, rather than just contributing to it here and there as it's convenient. A solid goal may help you stick with steady, ongoing contributions.

Best Regards,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations.
1 – dailyfinance.com/story/the-fed-economy-grew-at-a-modest-pace-in-september/19681630/ [10/20/10]
2 – msnbc.msn.com/id/39777205/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/ [10/21/10]
3 – marketwatch.com/story/housing-starts-rise-03-to-610000-in-september-2010-10-19 [10/19/10]
4 - thestreet.com/story/10891354/1/industrial-production-drops-in-september.html [10/18/10]
5 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/10/22/data-points-energy-metals-386/ [10/22/10]
6 – cnbc.com/id/39801554 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=10%2F22%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=10%2F22%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=10%2F22%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=10%2F21%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=10%2F21%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=10%2F21%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=10%2F23%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=10%2F23%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=10%2F23%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/22/10]
8 - ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [10/22/10]
8 - ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [10/22/10]
9 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

February 28, 2011 Weekly Market Commentary

STRIKING IMPROVEMENT IN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Consumer sentiment is really rebounding – at least by the measure of the country’s two most respected polls. The final February Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 77.5, leaping north from January’s 74.2 mark to the highest reading in 37 months. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index climbed all the way to 70.4 this month (it was at 64.8 in January) and its gauge of future expectations hit its most optimistic level since December 2006.1,2

REAL ESTATE MARKET WEATHERS CHILLY JANUARY
According to the Census Bureau, new home sales slipped 12.6% last month. Yet the National Association of Realtors reported that residential resales improved by 2.7% in January, the fifth increase in the past six months. Existing homes have apparently become a bit less expensive: the December Case-Shiller home price index came out last week and showed prices slipping 1.0% from November across 20 metro areas.2,3

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 2.7%
Aircraft orders drove the overall increase in the category for January. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 2.0% gain. Yet when you factor out transportation orders, durable goods orders actually fell 3.6% in January.4

CRUDE SETTLES NEAR $98, GAS PRICES SPIKE NORTH
By Friday afternoon, oil prices had retreated from Thursday’s $103 intraday peak. On the NYMEX, crude for April delivery settled at $97.88 a barrel Friday, capping a 9.11% weekly advance. Retail gasoline prices rose 5.9 cents overnight; the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded was $3.29 on Friday.5,6

UNREST HAMPERS STOCKS
February 21-25 amounted to the worst trading week for the S&P 500 and Dow since November. Statistically, this is what happened last week: DJIA, -2.10% to 12,130.45; NASDAQ, -1.87% to 2,781.05; S&P 500, -1.72% to 1,319.88.7

THIS WEEK: Reports on January consumer spending and December pending home sales arrive Monday. Tuesday, we get the latest ISM manufacturing index and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to Congress on monetary policy. Wednesday, we have a new Beige Book from the Fed and 4Q results from Staples and Costco. Thursday, we have the February ISM service-sector index, new initial and continuing claims figures and 4Q earnings from Kroger and Heinz. Friday, we get the February unemployment figures and the January report on factory orders.

WEEKLY QUOTE
"It is not the position, but the disposition.”
– Susan Sontag

WEEKLY TIP
Establish a timeline for your financial goals. List what you want to achieve and when, and review your progress and the deadlines you have set semi-annually or annually.

Best Regards,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-rises-in-february-2011-02-25 [2/25/11]
2 - blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/02/22/consumer-confidence-up-home-prices-down/ [2/22/11]
3 - marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-fall-126-in-january-2011-02-24 [2/24/11]
4 - blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/02/24/jobless-claims-fall-durable-goods-orders-gain/ [2/24/11]
5 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/02/25/data-points-energy-metals-464/ [2/25/11]
6 - money.cnn.com/2011/02/25/news/economy/gasoline_prices/index.htm [2/25/11]
7 - cnbc.com/id/41785394 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/25/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/25/11]
10 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
11 -montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=why-choose-an-independent-financial-advisor&category=5 [2/27/11]

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

February 14, 2011 Weekly Market Commentary

AN END IN SIGHT FOR FANNIE & FREDDIE
Friday, the Obama administration presented a plan to wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by 2018, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner citing “very broad consensus” that the government should play “a much smaller role” in the housing market. So what will replace them? The plan puts three options before Congress. In one option, the government would leave the mortgage market save for the VHA, FHA and other existing agencies. Two other options would set up “re-insurance” programs. A limited version would guarantee private mortgages only in economic or real estate downturns; another would provide a backstop for mortgage investments already guaranteed by private insurers. All three options would pave the way for higher mortgage costs. The Treasury and HUD have also suggested phasing in a short-term requirement for borrowers as Fannie and Freddie are unwound: homebuyers would have to put 10% down for any mortgage backed by the GSEs.1,2

CONSUMERS FEEL MORE UPBEAT
The latest Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is in, and the initial February reading is 75.1, an improvement from the final January mark of 74.2. This is the best reading since June 2009. The survey’s current conditions index rose 5.0% to 86.8 – the highest it has been in 37 months.3

GOLD ADVANCES, OIL PULLS BACK
Gold prices climbed 0.86% last week to settle at $1,359.90 an ounce Friday – it was the best week for the precious metal YTD. Oil and natural gas prices fell to their lowest levels since November on Friday after Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak announced his resignation; natural gas futures fell 9.28% on the week, and oil slipped 3.88% for the week to settle at $85.58 per barrel on the NYMEX.4

DJIA CLOSES AT HIGHEST MARK SINCE 6/16/08
The Dow logged an eight-day winning streak from January 31 to February 9, and it has advanced in 10 of the past 11 weeks. The weekly performance? DJIA, +1.50% to 12,273.26; NASDAQ, +1.45% to 2,809.44; S&P 500, +1.39% to 1,329.15.5

THIS WEEK: Very little is scheduled for either Monday or Friday. Tuesday brings January retail sales numbers and a report on December business inventories, plus 4Q earnings from Dell, Barclays and Tesla. Wednesday offers the January Producer Price Index, the most recent FOMC minutes, reports on January housing starts and industrial output and 4Q results from Comcast and CBS. Thursday, we get the January Consumer Price Index, the Conference Board’s latest LEI, new initial claims numbers and earnings from Nordstrom.

WEEKLY QUOTE
“The spirit, the will to win, and the will to excel are the things that endure. These qualities are so much more important than the events that occur.”
– Vince Lombardi

WEEKLY TIP
Students who want to enter college this fall should complete the FAFSA early in 2011 to increase eligibility for student aid. After completing it, they should apply for scholarships as soon as possible.

Best Regards,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations.

1 - blogs.abcnews.com/george/2011/02/the-end-of-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac.html [2/11/11]
2 - cnbc.com/id/41529671 [2/11/11]
3 - marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-sentiment-rises-in-february-2011-02-11 [2/11/11]
4 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/02/11/data-points-energy-metals-459/ [2/11/11]
5 - cnbc.com/id/41537483 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/11/11]
7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/11/11]
8 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
9 - http://montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=wills-and-living-trusts&category=30 [2/13/11]

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

January 31, 2011 Weekly Market Commentary

4Q GDP: +3.2%
The preliminary estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis certainly beats the +2.6% mark from 3Q 2010. A deeper look into the BEA report reveals both personal consumption and nonresidential fixed investment improving by a healthy 4.4% last quarter; inventory accumulation slowed as well.1

HUGE JUMP IN NEW HOME SALES
The pace of new home sales improved by 17.5% last month, according to the Census Bureau. In year-over-year terms, sales were down 7.6% while sale prices were 9.1% better. For the record, fewer new homes were built in 2010 than in any year since the government started keeping records in 1963. In other housing news, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales were up for the fifth time in the last six months in December (+2.0%), and Freddie Mac reported that the average interest rate on a 30-year conventional mortgage has risen to 4.80%.2,3

DISSIMILAR FINDINGS FROM CONFIDENCE POLLS
While the Conference Board’s January poll showed U.S. consumer confidence at an 8-month peak (60.6), the final January Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed a slight decline to 74.2 from 74.5 in December.4,5

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DOWN 2.5%
There was a silver lining in the Commerce Department’s December report: with aircraft orders factored out, durable goods orders were up 0.5% last month.6

FEARS, EARNINGS REPORTS STAGGER STOCKS
Unrest in Egypt (and subpar 4Q results from Ford, Amazon and Microsoft) led to a lot of selling Friday and took the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ lower for the week. The Dow’s eight-week winning streak was snapped; it did top 12,000 in intraday trading Friday. Weekly performances were as follows: DJIA, -0.41% to 11,823.70; S&P 500, -0.55% to 1,276.34; NASDAQ, -0.10% to 2,686.89. The CBOE VIX gained 8.50% last week.7

THIS WEEK: Monday brings a new consumer spending report and earnings from ExxonMobil and Chrysler. Tuesday, we have the January ISM manufacturing report and earnings from BP, Pfizer, UPS and Broadcom. Wednesday we get 4Q results from Yum Brands, Visa and Mattel. Thursday brings new initial and continuing claims data, a new ISM service sector report, December factory orders data, and 4Q results from Merck, Sony and Unilever and Ben Bernanke speaking to the National Press Club. Friday, we have the January jobs report and Aetna’s 4Q earnings.

WEEKLY QUOTE
“You can’t judge right from looking at what’s wrong.”
– Bo Diddley

WEEKLY TIP
A tax refund is nice, but it also means that you’ve given the IRS an interest-free loan. You may want to adjust your W-4 form so less is withheld from your paycheck. Maybe that extra money could be put to better use throughout the year - in your IRA or 401(k) for example.

Best Regards,
Kevin Kroskey

Citations.
1 - blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/01/28/inflation-wary-consumers-help-economy-grow-3-2-in-q4/ [1/28/11]
2 - latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-home-sales-20110127,0,3555076.story [1/27/11]
3 - usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2011-01-27-pending-home-sales_N.htm [1/27/11]
4 - latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/01/consumer-confidence-index-rises-job-market-outlook.html [1/25/11]
5 - marketwatch.com/story/us-consumers-sentiment-dips-in-january-2011-01-28 [1/28/11]
6 - abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=12779327 [1/27/11]
7 - cnbc.com/id/41317519 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=1%2F28%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=1%2F28%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=1%2F28%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=1%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=1%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=1%2F27%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=1%2F7%29F01&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=1%2F7%29F01&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=1%2F7%29F01&x=0&y=0 [1/28/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/28/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/28/11]
10 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
11 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [1/29/11]

January 17, 2011 Weekly Market Commentary

CONSUMER & PRODUCER PRICES RISE
The U.S. inflation rate hit an 18-month peak in December: the federal government’s Consumer Price Index advanced 0.5%. Pump prices were a big factor in that gain: gasoline grew 8.5% more expensive last month. However, core CPI (minus food and energy prices) only rose 0.1% for the month, and consumers experienced just 1.5% inflation across 2010. The Producer Price Index went 1.1% higher in December, and energy costs were responsible for most of the gain. Core PPI (again, minus food and energy prices) was just +0.2% for December. Wholesale prices rose 4.0% in 2010.1,2,3

ENCOURAGING RETAIL SALES FIGURES RELEASED
The Commerce Department announced a 0.6% gain in retail sales for December. While this was smaller than the 0.8% advance forecast by economists polled by MarketWatch, the increase wrapped up a positive year for the indicator. Retail sales have now improved for sixth months in a row, and 2010 was the best year for the category since 1999.4

GOLD SLIDES, BUT OIL RECOVERS
Gold is certainly off to a rocky start in 2011: as of Friday’s COMEX close, it was down 4.27% YTD to $1360.40 per ounce following news that China had tightened bank reserves. Oil, on the other hand, gained 3.99% last week to settle Friday at $91.54 a barrel on the NYMEX with prices up +0.18% YTD.5

NEWEST UNIV. OF MICHIGAN POLL UNDERWHELMS
The initial Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for January showed a little slip in consumer sentiment. It came in at 72.7, down from 74.4 at the end of 2010. Economists polled by Bloomberg News had reached a consensus forecast of 75.5.6

TWO WINNING WEEKS IN A ROW TO START 2011
A strong Friday contributed to nice weekly advances for the three major U.S. indices. The weekly numbers: DJIA, +0.96% to 11,787.38; NASDAQ, +1.93% to 2755.30; S&P 500, +1.71% to 1293.24. At Friday’s close, the S&P was at its highest level since August 28, 2008.7

THIS WEEK: Stock markets are closed Monday for the national holiday honoring Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Looking at the notable economic releases next week, we get data on December housing starts and building permits on Wednesday, and a look at December existing home sales, the latest index of leading indicators from the Conference Board and the latest initial and continuing claims reports on Thursday.

WEEKLY QUOTE
“Knowledge is more than equivalent to force.”
– Samuel Johnson

WEEKLY TIP
Do you have credit cards? Did you know you can call your credit card company and request a lower interest rate? In fact, a good rule of thumb is to do this once every six months. They don't grant every request, but you won't know if you don't ask.

Best Regards,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations.
1- bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm [1/14/11]
2 - theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/consumer-price-inflation-jumps-05-in-december/69567/ [1/14/11]
3 - npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/01/13/132886429/jobless-claims-jump-up-energy-pushed-wholesale-prices-higher [1/13/11]
4 - marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-climb-06-in-december-2011-01-14 [1/14/11]
5 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/14/data-points-energy-metals-440/ [1/14/11]
6 - bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/u-s-consumer-confidence-unexpectedly-declines-on-jobless-rate-fuel-costs.html [1/14/11]
7 - cnbc.com/id/41080629 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=1%2F14%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=1%2F14%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=1%2F14%2F10&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=1%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=1%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=1%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=1%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=1%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=1%2F7%12F01&x=0&y=0 [1/14/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/14/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/14/11]
10 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

January 3, 2011 Weekly Market Commentary

MAJOR INDICES POST DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS IN 2010
For the second year in a row, bulls ruled Wall Street. When the closing bell sounded on December 31, the S&P 500 was at 1,257.64, having gained 12.78% for 2010. The Dow finished 2010 at 11,577.51, representing an 11.02% year-over-year advance. The NASDAQ wrapped up 2010 at 2,652.87, posting a 16.91% yearly gain. The Russell 2000 also had a terrific year, finishing +25.31% after going +7.79% for December.1

FEWER INITIAL CLAIMS … AND LESS CONFIDENCE?
While the University of Michigan’s final December consumer sentiment survey showed consumer confidence at a 6-month peak, the Conference Board’s December poll declined to a 52.5 reading. Perhaps as RBS Securities Inc. economist Omair Sharif noted at Bloomberg.com, “we should watch what consumers do and not what they say.” Here’s a development that might improve consumer sentiment: weekly jobless claims dropped to a 2-year low in the week that ended Christmas Day. The 388,000 initial claims filed that week were the smallest number since July 2008.2,3

IMPROVED PENDING HOME SALES
The National Association of Realtors reported a 3.5% increase in the category for November. NAR’s pending home sales index still came in 5.0% below its November 2009 mark, but this was the second straight monthly improvement.4

CASE-SHILLER: HOME PRICES DOWN 0.8%
The latest Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index shows an 0.8% decline in housing prices across 20 cities from October 2009 to October 2010. A 1.0% overall decline in prices last October contributed to the year-over-year retreat.5

OIL, GOLD & COPPER OUTPACE STOCKS
Gold prices rose 29.76% on the COMEX in 2010. That is the best year for gold since 2007; the precious metal climbed $41.10 last week to finish December at $1,421.10 per ounce. Oil futures went +14.27% in the fourth quarter to finish the year up 15.15% at $91.38 a barrel. Copper gained 33.42% in 2010, concluding the year at $4.44 per pound.6

COMING THIS WEEK: Monday brings the Institute for Supply Management’s December manufacturing report and data on November construction spending. Tuesday, we get data on November factory orders, the most recent FOMC minutes and new estimates of auto and truck sales. Wednesday brings the ISM December service sector report. Thursday, we have new initial and continuing claims numbers. Friday, we get the December unemployment report from the Labor Department.

WEEKLY QUOTE
“And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same.”
– Nelson Mandela

WEEKLY TIP
Here’s a question for 2011: how are your current lifestyle costs affecting your financial progress? Consider emulating the “millionaire next door” - spend less today and you may end up with more money to save and invest toward lifetime financial objectives.

Best Regards,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations.
1 - cnbc.com/id/40865401 [12/31/10]
2 - bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-28/consumer-confidence-in-u-s-unexpectedly-falls-on-outlook-for-job-market.html [12/28/10]
3 - marketwatch.com/story/weekly-jobless-claims-drop-below-400000-2010-12-30?dist=afterbell [12/30/10]
4 - realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/12/pending_gradual [12/30/10]
5 - reuters.com/article/idUSN2824569820101228 [12/28/10]
6 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/12/31/data-points-energy-metals-430/ [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F31%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F31%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F31%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F30%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F30%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F30%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F22%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F22%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F22%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/31/10]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/31/10]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/31/10]
9 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]