April 11, 2011 Weekly Market Commentary

While journalists and political analysts worldwide pondered the effects of a federal government shutdown last week, Wall Street conducted business as usual. Any prolonged shutdown would test the stock market: while the Federal Reserve would not be forced into a hiatus, the majority of Treasury Department employees would be furloughed, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice could halt review of M&As, IPOs and new stock and bond issues. Still, much of the Street’s attention will be focused on the new earnings season this week. (For the record, stocks actually advanced about 5% during the three-week federal budget impasse of 1995-1996.)1,2,3

The Institute for Supply Management’s February non-manufacturing index came in at 59.7; the March edition is 2.4% lower, and ISM’s survey estimated a 7.2% decline in business activity/production for the month and a 4.0% increase in the backlog of orders. However, the ISM non-manufacturing index has shown sector expansion for 16 months.4

Oil prices rose 4.49% last week, and they have soared 11.60% in the last three weeks. NYMEX crude ended the week at $112.79 a barrel. (The American Automobile Association said the price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas averaged $3.73 nationally as of Friday.) Gold advanced $45.30 last week to settle at $1,473.40 on the COMEX.5,6

The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 didn’t move much between Monday and Friday. Here is how things went for the week: DJIA, +0.03% to 12,380.05; S&P 500, -0.32% to 1,328.17; NASDAQ, -0.33% to 2,780.41.7

THIS WEEK: Monday, a fresh earnings season begins with 1Q results from Alcoa. Tuesday (assuming no federal shutdown), we have data on March import and export prices. On the schedule for Wednesday, we have the Commerce Department report on March retail sales and a new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve – and before the bell, earnings from JPMorgan. Scheduled for Thursday, we have the weekly initial and continuing claims data, the March PPI and 1Q results from Google and Hasbro. The March CPI, the initial University of Michigan March consumer sentiment survey and a report on March industrial output are all slated for Friday, and that day starts with 1Q results from Bank of America and Mattel.

“Don't forget to love yourself.” – Soren Kierkegaard

Best Regards,

Kevin Kroskey

Bookmark and Share

1 - cnbc.com/id/42478476/ [4/7/11]
2 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/ [4/8/11]
3 - money.cnn.com/2011/04/08/markets/thebuzz/index.htm [4/8/11]
4 - ism.ws/ISMReport/nonmfgROB.cfm [4/5/11]
5 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/04/08/data-points-energy-metals-483/ [4/8/11]
6 - charlotteobserver.com/2011/04/08/2208080/gas-prices-are-on-rise-again.html [4/8/11]
7 - cnbc.com/id/42498783 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F8%2F10&x=0&y=0 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F8%2F10&x=10&y=18 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F8%2F10&x=0&y=0 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F7%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F7%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F7%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F9%2F01&x=0&y=0 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F9%2F01&x=0&y=0 [4/8/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F9%2F01&x=0&y=0 [4/8/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/8/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/8/11]
10 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
11 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=401k-an-overview&category=2 [4/9/11]

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Future Posts at www.TrueWealthDesign.com

Any future blog posts will be done at www.TrueWealthDesign.com . Thank you, Kevin Kroskey, CFP, MBA