December Monthly Market Commentary

THE MONTH IN BRIEF
The Dow advanced 1.43% and the S&P 500 rose 0.85% in December, but there was no major “Santa Claus” rally at the end of 2011. As a result, the Dow wound up +5.53% for the year while the S&P 500 posted a 2011 loss of 0.003% (exlcuding reinvested dividends). While the year was hardly spectacular for U.S. stocks, our benchmarks outshone many others. Last month we glimpsed more hints that the real estate market could be inching toward some kind of recovery. Shoppers spent freely for the holidays while legislators managed to extend the payroll tax holiday. It was a bad month for many commodities but a good month for the dollar.¹

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
Three developments stand out from December: the improvement in retail sales during the holiday season, the significant drop in the unemployment rate and the approval of a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut.

While we learned that consumer spending had increased just 0.1% in November, the numbers out of the malls and power centers in December were encouraging. According to the International Council of Shopping Centers index, same-store sales during the holiday season were up 4.5% over 2010. Gauging online retail sales from the start of November through Christmas Day, market research firm ComScore Inc. estimated e-commerce purchases rose by 15% year-over-year. Consumer confidence also improved. Last month’s poll from the Conference Board reached its highest level since April (64.5) and the University of Michigan’s final December survey showed its index at 69.9, the best reading since June.^2,3,4

Early in the month, the Labor Department said the jobless rate had dropped 0.4% in November to 8.6%, with unemployment down 1.5% since a high point in October, 2009. Underemployment stood at 15.6 in November. Non-farm payrolls marked their fourteenth consecutive month of expansion.⁵

The U.S. service and manufacturing sectors were growing, by the estimate of the Institute for Supply Management’s latest PMIs. ISM’s service sector index came in at 52.0 for November, down 0.9 from October; its December manufacturing index rose 1.2 points to 53.9. Durable goods orders were up 3.8% in November (+0.3% with the transportation category factored out).^2,6,7

Inflation showed signs of easing. Consumer prices, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, were flat in November. Annualized consumer inflation was at 3.4%, declining for the second straight month. Wholesale inflation rose 0.3% in November with the year-over-year gain in the Producer Price Index reaching 5.7%.^8,9

After another notable partisan fight, Congress passed an extension of the payroll tax holiday through the end of February, meaning Social Security taxes would stand at 4.2% for at least another two months. Long-term unemployment benefits were also extended through February 29 as a result of the legislation, and Medicare payments to physicians were allowed to remain at current levels through that date.¹⁰

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
Last month, 25 of 27 economists responding to a BBC survey predicted a mild recession across Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that 2012 “will no doubt be more difficult than 2011” for her country, while new Italian president Giorgio Napolitano called for sacrifices by taxpayers to ward off the threat of “financial collapse”. In another BBC poll, a majority of economists polled stated that the chances of a future Eurozone breakup were 30-40%.^11,12,13

As doomy as these pronouncements sound, there were positive signals in world manufacturing at the end of 2011. While the December Markit Economics PMI showed sector contraction in Germany, France and Italy, the overall index rose half a point to 46.9. Manufacturing indexes in the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore and Switzerland all improved last month. In another unexpected good sign, German unemployment dropped to 6.8%.¹⁴

WORLD MARKETS
Some of the world’s benchmark indices managed advances last month; some did not. The gains to note (these figures are from Morningstar and in U.S. dollar terms): Hang Seng, +2.67%; FTSE 100, +1.21%; Nikkei 225, +0.25%; CAC 40, +0.16%. The losses were deeper: All Ordinaries, -1.06%; TSX Composite, -2.04%; DAX, -3.13%; Sensex, -4.15%; Shanghai Composite, -5.74%. The MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets indices had another down month: the World fell 0.17% and the Emerging Markets slipped 1.29%. Among the above indices, the FTSE 100 (-5.55%) and MSCI World (-7.61%) held up best in 2011. At the back of the pack, we find the Shanghai Composite (-21.68%) and the Sensex (-24.64%).^15,16

COMMODITIES MARKETS
Was gold overvalued? That perception may have strongly influenced its December performance; it dropped 10.48% for the month. Oil fared better but still retreated, losing 1.52% in December. Still, they both had annual gains: gold went +10.23% for 2011 (settling at $1,566.80 on December 30) and oil went +8.15% for the year (ending 2011 at $98.83 a barrel). Silver and copper respectively lost 14.90% and 3.90% in December. They had poor years: copper lost 22.73% for 2011, silver lost 9.77%. Natural gas went -15.80% on the month and lost 32.15% for 2011. Key crop futures did well in December: wheat went +6.31%, corn +6.32% and cotton +0.85%. Still, wheat (-17.82%) and cotton (-36.69%) took dives on the year. The U.S. Dollar Index was up for the second straight month (+2.59%) to finish +1.56% for 2011.¹⁷

REAL ESTATE
For once, the news across this sector was mostly good. (When was the last time that happened?) The Census Bureau said that new home sales were up 1.6% in November to the best sales pace since April. The National Association of Realtors noted a 4.4% rise in existing home sales in November, matching a pace unseen since January. Pending home sales reached a 19-month peak in November as well. Housing starts also increased by 9.3% in November. The October edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released in late December, slipped 1.2% from its September level.^18,19,20

Freddie Mac’s December 29 Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed average interest rates on 30-year FRMs at 3.95%, average rates on 15-year FRMs at 3.24% and average rates on 5/1-year ARMs at 2.88%; these were all slightly below rates in the December 1 PMMS. Rates on 1-year ARMs averaged 2.78% in both surveys.²¹

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
The Dow wound up in the black for 2011 largely due to a record-setting fourth quarter, seeing the biggest quarterly point ascent in DJIA history. The Dow gained 11.95% in the quarter, and that was actually topped by the Russell 2000, which went +15.02% for 4Q 2011 yet finished at -5.45% for the year.¹

% CHANGE	2011	1-MO CHG	1-YR CHG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+5.53	+1.43	+5.53	+2.19
NASDAQ	-1.80	-0.58	-1.80	+3.36
S&P 500	-0.003	+0.85	-0.003	+0.95
REAL YIELD	12/30 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	-0.07%	1.08%	2.41%	3.50%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/30/11^1,22,23,24

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

January opened with a triple-digit climb for the Dow, a good sign if you believe in the old “January effect” theory. S&P Cap IQ chief strategist Sam Stovall recapped the premise for CNBC: “An up first week in the market usually signals an up January and as goes January, so goes the year. Since 1945, whenever the market has been up in January it has been up for the entire year 88% of the time.” Of course, past performance is no basis for future results: the S&P 500 advanced 2.26% for January 2011 and finished flat for the year. If our economy continues to improve, perhaps it will provide sufficient distraction from the debt crisis in the EU and the potential for recession in European and Asian economies to promote gains for U.S. stocks.^25,26

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: For the balance of January, the economic news items look like this: November factory orders and December auto sales (1/4), the December ISM service sector index (1/5), the December unemployment report (1/6), a new Fed Beige Book (1/11), the December retail sales numbers from the Census Bureau (1/12), January’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (1/13), December’s PPI and industrial output (1/18), the December CPI plus December housing starts and building permits (1/19), December existing home sales (1/20), December’s pending home sales report from the NAR and a Fed interest rate decision (1/25), December new home sales and durable goods orders plus the Conference Board’s December Leading Economic Indicators index (1/26), the final University of Michigan January consumer sentiment survey and the BEA’s first take on 4Q GDP (1/27), the Commerce Department’s report on December consumer spending (1/30), and finally the November Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s January consumer confidence poll (1/31).

To Your Prosperity,

Kevin Kroskey


Citations.

This commentary written by Peter Montoya Inc.

1 - www.cnbc.com/id/45824871 [12/30/11]
2 - www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/23/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7BM0AB20111223 [12/23/11]
3 - latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/12/holiday-shopping-lift-christmas.html [12/28/11]
4 - www.csnews.com/top-story-confidence_surges_on_better_employment_outlook-60179.html [12/28/11]
5 - online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204464404577112680918832116.html [1/3/12]
6 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [12/5/11]
7 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [12/1/11]
8 - www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/16/us-economy-idUSTRE7BE12S20111216 [12/16/11]      
9 - www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9RL8CRG0.htm [12/15/11]
10 - money.cnn.com/2011/12/23/news/economy/payroll_tax_cut_deal/ [12/23/11]               
11 - news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9669000/9669315.stm [12/30/11]
12 - www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16377010 [1/1/12]
13 - www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16382874 [1/2/12]
14 - www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-03/global-manufacturing-displays-resilience-to-europe-s-debt-crisis-economy.html [1/3/11]
15 - news.morningstar.com/index/indexreturn.html [12/30/11]
16 - mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/gimi/stdindex/performance.html [12/30/11]
17 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=7a929e98-4d99-44cb-98c9-a0ef1c3151c4 [12/30/11]
18 - www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-23/sales-of-u-s-new-homes-in-november-rise-to-315-000-rate.html [12/23/11]
19 - www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/27/us-economy-idUSTRE7BE12S20111227 [12/27/11]
20 - www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/12/phs_nov [12/29/11]
21 - www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ [1/3/12]
22 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F31%2F01&x=0&y=0 [12/30/11]
22 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F31%2F01&x=0&y=0 [12/30/11]
22 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F31%2F01&x=0&y=0 [12/30/11]
23 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/30/11]
23 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/30/11]
24 - www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm71101.pdf [7/11/01]
25 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [11/2/11]
26 - cnbc.com/id/45848630/ [1/2/12]
27 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/01/31/data-points-us-markets-342/ [1/31/11]=

November Monthly Market Commentary

THE MONTH IN BRIEF
An astonishing rally during the last three days of November did much to improve what had been an anxious month for investors. The Dow ended up gaining 0.76% in November after jumping 4.24% on November 30 alone, responding largely to coordinated action by the world’s central banks to improve liquidity in the European Union. We got hints that the real estate market might be finding a legitimate bottom, some fine numbers from Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and pleasant surprises from some other key economic indicators. Our stock market struggled to pull off gains in the face of debt worries, both in Europe and at home. ¹

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
November 2011 might be remembered most for a political and economic lowlight. On November 21, the Congressional “super committee” of 12 assigned to come up with a plan to reduce the federal deficit simply quit. This paved the way for involuntary cuts of $1.2 trillion in 2013. That prompted a stock market plunge and a Fitch Ratings decision, with the agency changing its U.S. outlook to “negative”.^2,3

In better news, consumers spent $52.4 billion during the four-day Thanksgiving Day weekend. The National Retail Federation said average shopper shelled out $398.62 in those four days, a new record. Cyber Monday sales rose 22% over 2010 levels to $1.25 billion. The Commerce Department noted that personal spending rose only 0.1% in October; however, personal wages did increase by 0.4%. The federal government’s Consumer Price Index also budged north by 0.1% in October with annualized inflation coming in at 3.5%.^4,5,6 .ng only rose 0.1% for the montday sales rose 33%m some other key economic indicators. Statesidgn

There was a rebound in consumer confidence. November’s Conference Board poll saw a 15-point spike to 56.0. The month’s final University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in at 64.1, much better than the final 55.7 for October; it was the third straight monthly gain for the index.^4,7

Now, over to industry. The Institute for Supply Management’s November manufacturing PMI bucked a global trend and advanced 1.9% to 52.7, marking the sector’s 28th straight month of expansion. ISM’s most recent service sector PMI (October) came in at 52.9, down from 53.0 the preceding month. Producer prices fell 0.3% in October and total durable goods orders slipped 0.7% in September (they went +0.7% when transportation orders were factored out).^8,9,10,11

The jobless rate stunningly dropped to 8.6% in November; it had been 9.0% in October and 9.1% in September. Some of this reduction in unemployment was attributable to people dropping out of the job hunt, but the private sector did add 140,000 positions last month. The underemployment rate fell 0.6% to 15.6%.¹²

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
Political change did not stop key Italian bond yields from approaching 7% during November. On November 23, 35% of the 10-year notes offered at Germany’s federal bond auction went unsold. After these alarming developments, the Federal Reserve and other key central banks united on November 30 to foster cheaper dollar loans for European lenders, a move that global markets cheered in relief.^1,13,14,15

Economically, the world is sometimes a small village. Was the trouble in Europe now indirectly affecting China? Its PMI fell to 48 in October from 51, the largest monthly slip since March 2009; below 50 is the contraction zone. Output also contracted in Taiwan and South Korea in October. Key PMIs for the Eurozone and Great Britain also fell below 50 in that month of data.^14,16

WORLD MARKETS
Most world benchmarks seem headed for double-digit 2011 losses; fortunately, our benchmarks have done better. How did things go globally in November? Poorly, for the most part. In USD terms, here are the monthly numbers according to Morningstar on November 30: FTSE 100, -0.70%; DAX, -0.85%; CAC 40, -2.72%; All Ordinaries, -4.03%; Shanghai Composite, -5.46%; Nikkei 225, -6.16%; TSX Composite, -6.29%; Hang Seng, -9.63%; Sensex, -10.09%. The oft-watched MSCI World (-2.69%) and MSCI Emerging Markets (-6.75%) indices both slipped for the month.^17,18

COMMODITIES MARKETS
Gold futures advanced 1.45% last month while copper lost 1.56% and silver lost 4.51%. Through the end of November, gold was +23.14% YTD on the COMEX. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 2.86% in November; at 78.49, it was still -1.01% YTD. Oil ended November at $100.36 a barrel after going +7.69% for the month. Natural gas went -9.76% in November. Retail gas prices (regular unleaded) fell 4.30% last month to $3.30 a gallon at month’s end. Coffee gained 2.82% for November, but other key crop futures descended: cotton lost 11.13%, corn lost 6.03% and wheat lost 2.27%.¹⁵

REAL ESTATE
Unexpectedly, the National Association of Realtors found that existing home sales increased 1.4% in October. Inventory shrank 2.2% to an 8.0-month backlog; the median sale price was $162,500, down 4.7% from a year before. The NAR also measured pending home sales surging by 10.4% in October. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed an overall 0.6% decline in September; after a 3Q overall gain of 0.1%, the index showed home prices at roughly 1Q 2003 levels. New home sales increased by 1.3% in October with the annualized gain at 8.9%.^15,19,20,21

Interest rates on conventional mortgages didn’t move much. Freddie Mac noted the following change (or lack thereof) in its November 3 and December 1 Primary Mortgage Market Surveys: the average rate on the 30-year FRM stayed flat at 4.00%, and the average rate on the 15-year FRM ticked down 0.01% to 3.30%. Rates on 5/1-year ARMs moved down from 2.96% to 2.90%; rates on 1-year ARMs fell to 2.78% from 2.88%.²²

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
The month ended well. November 28-30 represented the S&P 500’s best three days since November 23-25, 2008. At the close on November 30, the Dow was back above 12,000, the S&P back above 1,200 and the NASDAQ back above 2,600.¹⁵

December is historically a fine month for stocks, of course. With the continuing EU debt troubles, will a “Santa Claus” rally will occur as we get toward New Year’s Day? It does seem as though there is more optimism at the moment, or at least greater distraction on Wall Street from the crisis in Europe and the apparent slowdown in China. Perhaps stateside indicators will encourage the bulls to run and make 2011 a bit better statistically for investors. As CNBC notes, the Dow has gone positive in 71% of Decembers in its long history, posting an average gain of 1.40%. December has also been the best month of the year for the S&P 500 since 1950.^29,30

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: Here are the news items arriving between now and the end of the year: the November ISM service sector index and the report on October factory orders (12/5), the initial University of Michigan December consumer sentiment survey (12/9), the report on November retail sales and a Federal Reserve policy announcement (12/13), the November PPI and November industrial output (12/15), the November CPI (12/16), data on November housing starts and building permits (12/20), November existing home sales (12/21), the BEA’s final estimate of 3Q GDP, the final University of Michigan December consumer sentiment survey and the Conference Board’s November Leading Economic Indicators index (12/22), November consumer spending, new home sales and durable goods orders (12/23), the October Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s December consumer confidence poll (12/27), and the November pending home sales report (12/29). The December unemployment report will be out on January 6.

MONTHLY QUOTE
“If you command wisely, you’ll be obeyed cheerfully.”

 – Thomas Fuller

To Your Prosperity,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations

1 - www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/30/markets-stocks-close-idUSWEN125420111130 [11/30/11]
2 - abcnews.go.com/Business/gdp-grew-25-percent-boosted-consumer-spending-double/story?id=14821833 [10/27/11]
3 - abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2011/11/fitch-cuts-u-s-outlook-from-stable-to-negative/ [11/28/11]
4 - www.kansascity.com/2011/11/29/3291899/americans-in-november-more-confident.html [11/29/11]
5 - www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-usa-economy-consumer-idUSTRE7AM17320111123 [11/23/11]
6 - www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9R1SFE00.htm [11/16/11]
7 - latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/11/report-consumer-confidence-is-up-.html [11/23/11]
8 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [12/1/11]
9 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12943 [11/3/11]
10 - www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm [11/15/11]
11 - community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-11/us-durablegoods-order-fell-07-in-october.aspx?storyid=104419 [11/23/11]
12 - www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7AL14I20111202 [12/2/11]
13 - www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/italy-bonds-auction-idUSL5E7MS3S820111129 [11/29/11]
14 - www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/the-energy-report/2011/11/24/ [11/24/11]            
15 - money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=fd688bc8-f250-4f5f-b360-b0324cd7581c [11/30/11]
16 - www.ft.com/cms/s/0/88f51a98-1c3e-11e1-af09-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fKupP0aW [12/1/11]
17 - news.morningstar.com/index/indexreturn.html [11/30/11]
18 - mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/gimi/stdindex/performance.html [11/30/11]
19 - realtors.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/11/ehs_oct [11/21/11]
20 - www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf [11/28/11]
21 - www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-prices-drop-06-in-september-2011-11-29 [11/29/11]
22 - www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ [12/2/11]
23 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [11/30/11]
24 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [11/30/11]
25 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [11/30/11]
26 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F30%2F01&x=0&y=0 [12/2/11]
27 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/2/11]
28 - www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm71101.pdf [7/11/01]
29 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [11/2/11]
30 - www.cnbc.com/id/45481657 [11/30/11]
This news release was prepared by Peter Montoya.

October Monthly Market Commentary

THE MONTH IN BRIEF
In October 2011, stocks had their best month in nearly 20 years. The S&P 500 climbed 10.77% as optimism returned; investors were relieved that Eurozone nations were progressing toward a solution to avert a Greek default. However, the month ended with a political curveball that threatened to sabotage the whole effort. At home, consumer confidence and mortgage rates were at generational lows while consumer spending, auto sales and new home sales held up. Occupy Wall Street gained the world’s attention, as the hazily defined movement may have inspired its first tangible financial change.¹

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
In the month of October, the most reassuring stateside economic indicator was a quarterly one. The initial estimate of 3Q GDP was a 2.5% rise: precisely what economists were forecasting and exactly what was needed to at least temporarily silence arguments that we were on the cusp of a double-dip recession.²

Consumers had become pessimists, but they were still spending enough money to move the economy along. They weren’t happy: the month’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 60.9, better than the preceding month’s 59.4 but still very low. The Conference Board’s October poll fell to an abysmal 39.8. Yet personal spending had improved by 0.6% in September, even as incomes only rose 0.1% in that month.^3,4

At both the mall and the factory, there were still signs of vitality. The latest purchasing manager indexes from the Institute for Supply Management showed mild sector expansion: 50.8 in October for the manufacturing index, 53.0 in September for the service sector index. Retail sales zoomed north 1.1% in September, according to the Commerce Department. U.S. auto sales posted a 7.5% monthly gain in October. Overall durable goods orders retreated 0.8% in September, yet there was a 1.7% gain in hard good orders ex-transportation.^5,6,7,8,9

Moderate inflation was also alive and well; the federal government’s Consumer Price Index showed annualized inflation reaching 3.9% in September; annualized core CPI was unchanged from the August reading of 2.0%. The CPI posted a 0.3% monthly gain for September while the Producer Price Index went up 0.8% after a flat August.¹⁰

The jobless rate didn’t move for the third straight month; in September, it remained at 9.1%. On Capitol Hill, President Obama’s American Jobs Act stalled in the Senate and there were indications that the “super committee” of 12 legislators assigned to craft a deficit reduction plan wasn’t making much progress. President Obama used an executive order to speed up implementation of rules intended to ease the debt burden from college loans, and another to broaden the qualifying criteria for HARP, the federal government’s underutilized mortgage relief program. The Occupy Wall Street protest spread to other cities; while some of the protesters seemed naïve and poorly informed about the relationship of Main Street to Wall Street, they may have hit one of their targets. Late last month, Bank of America announced it was dropping its proposed $5 monthly fee on debit card use; other lenders considering debit card usage fees publicly reconsidered them.^11,12

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
Things were looking so much better in Europe, until one politician made a truly scary announcement on Halloween. Greek prime minister George Paparandou stunned the European Union with his intent to make the latest austerity cuts for Greece contingent on a public vote. On November 2, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy gave Paparandou an ultimatum: no more money from the EU or the IMF unless Greek voters approve the cuts. One day later, Paparandou scuttled the referendum and faces a potentially grim political future. In late October, key bankers and insurers within the Eurozone agreed to a 50% writedown on their Greek debt holdings; additionally, European finance ministers unveiled a plan to boost bank capital ratios to 9% or better by June and increase the size of the Eurozone bailout fund fourfold.^13,14,15,35

So what was going on in Asian economies? Some inflation readings were lower than analysts expected: 4.4% for Indonesia; 4.2% for Thailand; 3.9% for South Korea. India’s PMI improved 1.6% in October to 52.0 and its exports surged 36% in the month. On the downside, Taiwan’s latest GDP reading was lower than anticipated, and so was China’s official PMI, which approached a three-year low last month.¹⁶

WORLD MARKETS
Looking at Morningstar’s figures for global indexes (calculated in USD terms), we see some impressive one-month rebounds from September. England’s FTSE 100 went +8.11% and the French CAC 40 +8.75%, but that paled in comparison to the German DAX at +11.62% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng at +12.50%. Other nice performances: India’s Sensex, +7.60%; Australia’s All Ordinaries, +7.13%; the TSX Composite of Canada, +5.40%; the Shanghai Composite of China, +4.62%; Japan’s Nikkei 225, +3.31%. The MSCI World Index rose 10.26% last month while the MSCI Emerging Market Index gained 13.08%.^17,18

COMMODITIES MARKETS
Metals rebounded in October, as follows: gold, +6.3%; silver, +14.2%; copper, +15.0%; platinum, +5.5%; palladium, +6.0%. Gold ended up +21.3% YTD when October concluded. Oil rose $13.99 on the month, settling at $93.19 a barrel on Halloween. The real yield of the 10-year note (already down to 0.17% on September 30) diminished to 0.08% by October 31. The U.S. Dollar Index retreated 3.03% last month.^{19,20,21,22,23}

REAL ESTATE
There was some good news: the Census Bureau reported housing starts up by a whopping 15.0% for September, and it said new home sales improved by 5.7% in that month. The August edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted an overall advance for the third month in a row (0.2%), with prices rising in 10 of 20 metro areas and the year-over-year price decline shrinking to just 3.8%.^24,25,26

On the downside, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 3.0% for September, leaving sales on pace for a 2012 total of 4.91 million; this was be precisely the same amount of residential resales as 2010, that year being the worst on record for the category since 1997. NAR also said that pending home sales slipped 4.6% in September (economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.4% gain). ^27,28

Mortgage rates went up in October. Freddie Mac’s October 27 Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average rate on the 30-year FRM at 4.10%, up from the bedrock-low 4.01% on September 29. Other average interest rates moved as follows during that interval: 5/1-year ARMs, from 3.02% to 3.08%; 1-year ARMs, from 2.83% to 2.90%; 15-year FRMs, from 3.28% to 3.38%.²⁹

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
This sterling market month started and ended with sour notes: the Dow’s worst trading days of October were October 1 and Halloween. Those notes aside, October was positively amazing for the blue chips. In percentage terms, the DJIA had its finest month since October 2002 (and that was with a 2.26% fall on Halloween). All 30 components advanced; the last month in which that happened was September 2010. Also worth noting: the NASDAQ had its best month since September 2010. Here was the tale of the tape at the end of October. ¹

This is the time of year many investors look forward to; November often marks the start of the traditional fall-winter “sweet spot” for the market. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has advanced in 57% of Novembers since 1928, with an average gain of 0.78%. Not only that, November has been the second-best month of the year for the S&P 500 since 1950. However, the yet-unresolved situation in Europe is hanging over the market like a cloud; Europe is the market mover now and for the near future. The current Greek government may or may not survive a seemingly inevitable confidence vote; Greek PM George Papandreou’s recent backtrack on a bailout referendum only adds to the uncertainty. So November proceeds with a caution flag for investors; in the best-case scenario, EU pressure on the Papandreou government and a calming of internal Greek political strife lowers that flag.^{34, 35}

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES
The rest of November offers the following news items: the October ISM service sector index (11/3), the October unemployment report (11/4), September’s wholesale inventories (11/9), the initial University of Michigan November consumer sentiment survey (11/11), the October PPI, October retail sales and September business inventories (11/15), October’s CPI and industrial output (11/16), October housing starts and building permits (11/17), the Conference Board’s October Leading Economic Indicators index (11/18), October existing home sales (11/21), the latest FOMC minutes and the BEA’s second estimate of 3Q growth (11/22), the October consumer spending and durable goods orders reports and the final University of Michigan October consumer sentiment survey (11/23), October new home sales (11/28), the September Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence snapshot (11/29), and finally the October pending home sales report and a new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve (11/30).


MONTHLY QUOTE
“The family you come from isn’t as important as the family you’re going to have.”

 – Ring Lardner

To Your Prosperity,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations. 1 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10/31/data-points-u-s-markets-60/ [10/31/11] 2 - abcnews.go.com/Business/gdp-grew-25-percent-boosted-consumer-spending-double/story?id=14821833 [10/27/11] 3 – www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/10/28/consumer-spending-rises-weak-incomes-worry/ [10/28/11] 4 - www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/10/25/141683694/consumer-confidence-back-down-to-recession-level [10/25/11] 5 - www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [11/1/11] 6 – www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [10/5/11] 7 - www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-economy-retail-20111014,0,1716584.story?track=rss [10/14/11] 8 - online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204528204577011691060440660.html [11/1/11] 9 - www.forbes.com/2011/10/26/durable-goods-order-rise-extransportation-mortgage-apps-rise-marketnewsvideo.html [10/26/11] 10 - www.nytimes.com/2011/10/20/business/economy/us-consumer-inflation-subdued-housing-starts-up.html [10/19/11] 11 – www.marketwatch.com/story/september-data-show-improvement-in-jobs-market-2011-10-07 [10/7/11] 12 - bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/11/01/8583136-after-debit-card-battle-beware-of-more-bank-fees [11/1/11] 13 - www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-analysts-idUSTRE79U7GO20111031 [10/31/11] 14 - www.marketwatch.com/story/greek-bondholders-to-take-50-haircut-2011-10-26 [10/27/11]             15 - www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/02/greece-ultimatum-austerity-forego-eu?intcmp=239 [11/2/11] 17 - news.morningstar.com/index/indexreturn.html [11/1/11] 18 - mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/gimi/stdindex/performance.html [10/31/11] 19 - www.bullionpricestoday.com/bullion-prices-rally-in-october-2011/ [10/31/11] 20 - www.marketwatch.com/gold-futures-drop-as-us-dollar-surges-2011-10-31 [10/31/11] 21 - online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html?mod=mdc_curr_dtabnk&symb=DXY [11/2/11] 22 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10/31/data-points-energy-metals-528/ [10/31/11] 23 – www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldYear&year=2011 [11/1/11] 24 – www.thestreet.com/story/11283665/1/raise-the-roof-housing-starts-up-15-in-september.html [10/20/11] 25 - marketwatch.com/story/new-us-home-sales-rise-as-prices-tumble-2011-10-26 [10/26/11] 26 - articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/25/business/la-fi-home-prices-20111026 [10/25/11] 27 - ajc.com/business/sales-of-previously-occupied-1206303.html [10/20/11] 28 - bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/pending-sales-of-u-s-existing-homes-unexpectedly-falls-4-6-on-demand-ebb.html [10/27/11] 29 - freddiemac.com/pmms/ [11/2/11] 30 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [11/2/11] 31 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F1%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/2/11] 31 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F1F2%2F10&x=10&y=18 [11/2/11] 31 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F1%2F10&x=0&y=0 [11/2/11] 31 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F01&x=0&y=0 [11/2/11] 31 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F01&x=0&y=0 [11/2/11] 31 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F01&x=0&y=0 [11/2/11] 32 - www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/2/11] 33 - www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm71101.pdf [7/11/01] 34 - www.cnbc.com/id/45082000 [11/2/11]

  35 - www.nytimes.com/2011/11/04/world/europe/greek-leaders-split-on-euro-referendum.html [11/3/11]

September Monthly Market Commentary

THE MONTH IN BRIEF
September 2011 was a difficult time for many investors; the best thing about it may be that it’s over. Stocks and commodities were battered during the month - the S&P 500 retreated 7.18% and the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index sank 12.97%. Investor anxiety about the European Union’s debt problems increased, and Wall Street was unimpressed by some of the stateside economic statistics. Would stocks struggle for the balance of the year? Had we entered a new recession? Investors could only hope for market performance and economic signals in future months that would put both questions to rest.^1,2

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH
Consumer spending increased by 0.2% in August, down from a revised 0.7% gain in July. Consumer incomes declined by 0.1% in August for the first time in almost two years. Consumer confidence – which seemingly had nowhere to go but up in light of the July figures – did improve somewhat. The University of Michigan’s final September survey rose to 59.4 from the final August 55.7 reading, 1.6 points better than the consensus forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg News; the survey’s index of current conditions went up to 74.9 from August’s final 68.7 mark. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index edged north 0.2% to 44.7. Consumer prices grew 0.4% in August, with core CPI up 0.2% and 2.0% year-over-year, the biggest annualized core inflation number in almost three years. Producer prices were flat in August, and so were U.S. retail sales. The jobless rate was 9.1% in August – the 25th time in the past 27 months it had been above 9%.^3,4,5

The manufacturing and service sectors saw improved growth, at least by the gauge of the most recent Institute for Supply Management manufacturing and service sector indices. ISM’s service sector index rose to 53.3 in August from July’s 52.7 mark – an improvement few analysts were expecting. Its September manufacturing index rose a full percentage point to 51.6. Durable goods orders diminished in August, but not by much – just 0.1% overall. Core capital goods orders were up 1.1% and core capital goods shipments were up 2.8%.^6,7,8

In Washington, there were two big news items. President Obama unveiled the American Jobs Act – a bill that would cut the payroll tax for workers and businesses to 3.1% in 2012, offer tax credits as large as $4,000 to companies hiring the long-term unemployed, and devote about $80 billion into infrastructure projects. To pay for it, the President proposed $1.6 trillion in tax increases for upper-income Americans and corporations as a component of a $4.4 trillion reduction of the federal deficit by fiscal year 2021. Republicans dismissed any direct link between taxes on the wealthy and future job creation, and it remains to be seen if the AJA will pass in anything like its entirety.^9,10

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH
Fears of sovereign contagion grew on rumors that Greece would soon default on its debt. At mid-month, European finance ministers and central bank governors (and even Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner) conferred to try and figure out the least disruptive resolution to the crisis. The G-20 issued a statement promising a “strong and coordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy”. That aside, both the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee and International Monetary Fund managing director Christine LaGarde saw appreciable “downside risks” for the U.S. and world economies.¹¹

When investors weren’t worried about Greek banks going belly-up or Greece ditching the euro for the drachma, they had concerns about China. Its central bank was trying to arrange a soft landing for its slowing economy. Data showed China’s consumer prices up 6.2% in August from a year earlier; the People’s Bank of China has raised interest rates five times in the last 12 months. China’s official PMI improved a bit to 51.2 in September, but looking long-term, 59% of analysts and traders recently surveyed in Bloomberg’s Global Poll of Investors think that its economy will see growth of less than 5% by 2016. Meanwhile, key PMIs in Australia (42.3) and India (50.4) went lower.^12,13 

WORLD MARKETS
Losses abounded. Data from Morningstar tells the tale, with all of this measured in U.S. dollar terms. India’s Sensex lost but 1.34% last month. The Nikkei 225 only lost 2.85%; Germany’s DAX retreated 4.89% and England’s FTSE 100 lost 4.93%. Now the greater descents: All Ordinaries, -6.86%; CAC 40, -8.44%; Hang Seng, -14.33%; TSX Composite, -8.97%; Shanghai Composite, -8.11%. After September, all of these indices were in the red by 10% or more YTD. The biggest loser among them? The DAX, -23.99% YTD. The MSCI World and Emerging Market indices respectively lost 8.85% and 14.78% in September.^14,15

COMMODITIES MARKETS
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 6.0% in September. That alone might tell you what kind of month it was. Gold lost 11.38% last month. Other precious metals also saw major selloffs last month – platinum, -17.9%; palladium, 22.3%; silver, 28.0%. Oil futures slipped 10.82% in September. At month’s end, the price of COMEX gold was $1620.40 per ounce; NYMEX crude settled at $79.20 a barrel. The 19-commodity Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index posted a 12.97% loss on the month, and just three crops in the 24-commodity Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of raw materials advanced – live cattle (+7.6%), feeder cattle (+7.7%) and lean hogs (+5.9%). The real yield of the 10-year note was but 0.17% on September 30, hardly changed from the 0.18% yield on August 31.^{2,16,17,18,19,20}

REAL ESTATE
The housing market appeared healthier than a year ago. Perhaps that isn’t saying much, but the progress was tangible. Existing home sales improved 7.7% in August, putting them + 18.6% from a year earlier. There were 3.2% more housing starts in August, and that indicator registered 7.8% annual improvement. August data also showed 12-month gains in new home sales (6.1%) and pending home sales (7.7%). The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose again in July (0.9%); the index was still 4.1% below July 2010 levels.^{21,22,23,24,25}

How low could mortgage rates go? In September, the short answer was “even lower”. Homeowners who could manage a refi were looking at a 3.28% average rate for the 15-year fixed on September 29 according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That was down from 3.39% on September 1. The average rate on the 30-year FRM was a milestone 4.01% on September 29; it had been 4.22% on September 1. In the same interval, the average rates on the 5/1-year ARM actually rose to 3.02% from 2.96%; rates on the 1-year ARM went from 2.89% to 2.83%.²⁶ 

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD
Appetite for risk truly waned in September, a month in which the dollar seemingly beat every asset class.

Uncertainty defines the market at this point. Could this next earnings season be powerful enough to send stocks north in October? Could anything divert enough attention from the risks in Europe? (Don’t forget the pressure from a stronger dollar.) This is a market given to rapid sentiment shifts, and its present level of volatility might be with us for months. If it is any encouragement, October has been a decent month for Wall Street since 2000; in fact, it has been the DJIA’s fifth-best month of the year since then with an average monthly performance of +1.16%.³¹ 

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: Here’s what we have for the rest of October: the August ISM service sector PMI (10/5), the September jobs report and a report on August wholesale inventories (10/7), the initial University of Michigan October consumer sentiment survey, September retail sales figures and August business inventories (10/14), September industrial output (10/17), the September PPI (10/18), the September CPI, a new Fed Beige Book and data on September housing starts and building permits (10/19), September’s existing home sales and the Conference Board’s September Leading Economic Indicators index (10/20), the August Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s October consumer confidence poll (10/25), September new home sales and durable goods orders (10/26), the initial BEA estimate of 3Q GDP and September’s pending home sales (10/27), and then September consumer spending and the final University of Michigan October consumer sentiment survey (10/28). 

MONTHLY QUOTE 
“It takes a long time to grow an old friend.”

 – John Leonard 

To Your Prosperity,

Kevin Kroskey

Citations.

1 - cnbc.com/id/44729786 [9/30/11]

2 - bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CRY:IND [9/30/11]

3 - businessweek.com/news/2011-09-30/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-increases-more-than-forecast.html [9/30/11]

4 - businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9PP5NB00.htm [9/15/11]

5 - nytimes.com/2011/09/15/business/economy/retail-sales-and-producer-prices-unchanged-in-august.html [9/14/11]

6 - bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/u-s-ism-services-index-increased-in-august.html [9/6/11]

7 - ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [10/3/11]

8 - marketwatch.com/story/us-durable-goods-orders-drop-01-in-august-2011-09-28?reflink=MW_news_stmp [9/28/11]

9 - money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20110909&id=14243169 [9/9/11]
10 - usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2011-09-19/Obama-deficit-reduction-plan/50470916/1 [9/19/11]
11 - sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/09/22/bloomberg_articlesLRXZ2L0D9L35.DTL [9/22/11]

12 - businessweek.com/news/2011-10-03/asian-economies-weaken-as-european-crisis-crushes-confidence.html [10/3/11]

13 -.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-03/china-s-expansion-in-services-may-ease-slowdown-concerns.html [10/3/11]

14 - news.morningstar.com/index/indexreturn.html [9/30/11]

15 - mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/gimi/stdindex/performance.html [9/30/11]

16 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/30/data-points-energy-metals-525/ [9/30/11]

17 - bullionpricestoday.com/bullion-prices-mixed-in-third-quarter-2011/ [9/30/11]

18 - online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html?mod=mdc_curr_dtabnk&symb=DXY [10/3/11]

19 - bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-02/dollar-beating-all-assets-in-september-undermines-s-p-downgrade.html [10/2/11]

20 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldYear&year=2011 [10/3/11]

21 - realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/09/ehs_aug [9/21/11]

22 - census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf/ [9/20/11]

23 - census.gov/const/newressales.pdf [9/26/11]

24 - realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/09/phs_august [9/29/11]

25 - articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/28/business/la-fi-home-prices-20110928 [9/28/11]

26 - freddiemac.com/pmms/ [10/3/11]

27 - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [10/3/11]

28 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F30%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/30/11]

28 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F30F2%2F10&x=10&y=18 [9/30/11]

28 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F30%2F10&x=0&y=0 [9/30/11]

28 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F1%2F01&x=0&y=0 [9/30/11]

28 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F1%2F01&x=0&y=0 [9/30/11]

28 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F1%2F01&x=0&y=0 [9/30/11]

29 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/5/11]

30 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm71101.pdf [7/11/01]

31 - cnbc.com/id/44758022 [10/3/11]

This article prepared by Peter Montoya.