Last month, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% with core CPI flat for the third month in a row. Core CPI has advanced at a crawl in the past 12 months: just 0.6% compared to a Federal Reserve annualized target of 2.0%. Producer prices rose 0.4% last month, duplicating their August and September increase. Yet core producer prices fell 0.6%.1,2
HOUSING STARTS SLIP, MORTGAGE RATES JUMP
The Commerce Department announced an 11.7% slump in new residential construction starts for the month of October, and a 1.9% slip from year-ago levels. A drop in apartment and condo construction accounted for most of the October decline. Last week, Freddie Mac said that the average rate on a 30-year conventional home loan had jumped to 4.39% from 4.17% a week prior. The average rate for a 15-year FRM had increased to 3.76%, up from 3.57% in Freddie’s previous survey.3,4
RETAIL SALES 7.3% BETTER THAN A YEAR AGO
Car buying drove a 1.2% gain in U.S. retail sales in October. In fact, the Census Bureau reported a 14.7% year-over-year increase in sales volume at car dealerships. The year-over-year gain in overall retail sales was 7.3%, and 13.5% for non-store retailers.5
CONFERENCE BOARD INDEX UP 0.5%
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators notched its second straight half-percent increase in October. This was also its fourth straight advance.6
GM IPO TURNS THE WEEK AROUND
Thursday’s eagerly awaited initial public offering from General Motors sent the Dow on a triple-digit rally and turned a down week into a flat one. Here is how the three marquee indices performed last week: DJIA, +0.10% to 11,203.55; S&P 500, +0.04% to 1,199.73; NASDAQ, 0.00% to 2,518.12 (it actually fell .09 on the week).7,8
COMING NEXT WEEK: No economic releases are scheduled for Monday. Tuesday, we have October existing home sales and the release of the minutes from the Fed’s November 3 policy meeting, plus the second estimate of 3Q GDP. Wednesday, we have even more data: the October consumer spending report, October new home sales, October durable goods orders and the final November consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan.
WEEKLY QUOTE
“You are the only real obstacle in your path to a fulfilling life.”
– Les Brown
WEEKLY TIP
Ramp up your college savings with rewards programs. There are credit cards and online shopping programs that can allow you to direct a steady stream of rebates toward your education fund.
Best Regards,
Kevin Kroskey
Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-prices-up-02-in-october-2010-11-17 [11/17/10]
2 - blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/11/16/producer-prices-lower-than-expected-but-crude-prices-jump/ [11/16/10]
3 - articles.latimes.com/print/2010/nov/18/business/la-fi-housing-mortgage-20101118 [11/18/10]
4 - freddiemac.com/pmms/release.html [11/18/10]
5 - census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf [11/15/10]
6 -boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/11/19/new_figures_indicate_economy_is _picking_up [11/19/10]
7 - cnbc.com/id/40279101 [11/19/10]
8 - cnbc.com/id/40155548 [11/12/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F19%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F19%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F19%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F18%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F18%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F18%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F20%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F20%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
9 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F20%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/19/10]
10 - ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [11/19/10]
10 - ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [11/19/10]
11 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]
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