Consumer sentiment is really rebounding – at least by the measure of the country’s two most respected polls. The final February Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 77.5, leaping north from January’s 74.2 mark to the highest reading in 37 months. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index climbed all the way to 70.4 this month (it was at 64.8 in January) and its gauge of future expectations hit its most optimistic level since December 2006.1,2
REAL ESTATE MARKET WEATHERS CHILLY JANUARY
According to the Census Bureau, new home sales slipped 12.6% last month. Yet the National Association of Realtors reported that residential resales improved by 2.7% in January, the fifth increase in the past six months. Existing homes have apparently become a bit less expensive: the December Case-Shiller home price index came out last week and showed prices slipping 1.0% from November across 20 metro areas.2,3
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 2.7%
Aircraft orders drove the overall increase in the category for January. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 2.0% gain. Yet when you factor out transportation orders, durable goods orders actually fell 3.6% in January.4
CRUDE SETTLES NEAR $98, GAS PRICES SPIKE NORTH
By Friday afternoon, oil prices had retreated from Thursday’s $103 intraday peak. On the NYMEX, crude for April delivery settled at $97.88 a barrel Friday, capping a 9.11% weekly advance. Retail gasoline prices rose 5.9 cents overnight; the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded was $3.29 on Friday.5,6
UNREST HAMPERS STOCKS
February 21-25 amounted to the worst trading week for the S&P 500 and Dow since November. Statistically, this is what happened last week: DJIA, -2.10% to 12,130.45; NASDAQ, -1.87% to 2,781.05; S&P 500, -1.72% to 1,319.88.7
THIS WEEK: Reports on January consumer spending and December pending home sales arrive Monday. Tuesday, we get the latest ISM manufacturing index and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to Congress on monetary policy. Wednesday, we have a new Beige Book from the Fed and 4Q results from Staples and Costco. Thursday, we have the February ISM service-sector index, new initial and continuing claims figures and 4Q earnings from Kroger and Heinz. Friday, we get the February unemployment figures and the January report on factory orders.
"It is not the position, but the disposition.”
– Susan Sontag
WEEKLY TIP
Establish a timeline for your financial goals. List what you want to achieve and when, and review your progress and the deadlines you have set semi-annually or annually.
Best Regards,
Kevin Kroskey
Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-rises-in-february-2011-02-25 [2/25/11]
2 - blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/02/22/consumer-confidence-up-home-prices-down/ [2/22/11]
3 - marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-fall-126-in-january-2011-02-24 [2/24/11]
4 - blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/02/24/jobless-claims-fall-durable-goods-orders-gain/ [2/24/11]
5 - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/02/25/data-points-energy-metals-464/ [2/25/11]
6 - money.cnn.com/2011/02/25/news/economy/gasoline_prices/index.htm [2/25/11]
7 - cnbc.com/id/41785394 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/25/11]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/25/11]
10 - treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
11 -montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=why-choose-an-independent-financial-advisor&category=5 [2/27/11]
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